3 Why Megatrends matter?
Megatrends are great forces in societal development that will affect all areas - state, market and civil society - for many years to come. In megatrends such as, for example, prosperity and aging, lies a great deal of the knowledge we have about the future. We know that wealth will probably continue to increase by about 2% a year in the western world. We also know that there will be more elderly people and fewer youths in the near future.
In other words, megatrends are our knowledge about the probable future. Megatrends are the forces that define our present and future worlds, and the interaction between them is as important as each individual megatrend. That is why futures researchers, companies and others use megatrends when they develop and work with scenarios. Megatrends can be a starting point for analyzing our world.
Even though megatrends say something about what we know about the future, it is not certain how society, companies or any of us will react to these forces. In other words, it is not enough to draw on the probable future when working with futures research. The future is never a given, and any one of us can affect or create the future. Megatrends have different meanings for different companies, organizations and individuals, because we react, consciously or not, differently to trends such as globalization (vs. anti-globalization movements), individualization (vs. new communities) and the increasing pace of change (vs. the slow movement).
Futures researchers always work with three types of futures: the predictable, the possible, and the preferred. The two last - the possible and the preferred - are also worth considering when we use megatrends in our strategic work with the future.
Megatrends say something about the probable future, but there are other possible futures. Every megatrend can be set aside or can suddenly and fundamentally change direction. Wildcards - events that are unlikely, but that would have enormous consequences - can slow a megatrend's development or create counter-forces. For example, the events of September 11, 2001 temporarily stopped growth and slowed some aspects of globalization.
Certainties, uncertainties and paradoxes
Megatrends are the probable future - or express what we know with great confidence about the future. Megatrends are certainties. Nevertheless, they always contain elements of uncertainty - through the effects on and reactions of companies, organizations and individuals, or through wildcards. Moreover, they can contain elements of paradoxes/counter-forces, such as the anti-globalization movement, anti-consumer movement or the slow movement.
Megatrends can be used as a methodology when you or your company works strategically with the future. You can, for example, use them as a base in development and innovation processes, and use them in combination with other trends in a more specific area. You can also use them if you create scenarios or need an Early Warning System.
In other words, megatrends are our knowledge about the probable future. Megatrends are the forces that define our present and future worlds, and the interaction between them is as important as each individual megatrend. That is why futures researchers, companies and others use megatrends when they develop and work with scenarios. Megatrends can be a starting point for analyzing our world.
Even though megatrends say something about what we know about the future, it is not certain how society, companies or any of us will react to these forces. In other words, it is not enough to draw on the probable future when working with futures research. The future is never a given, and any one of us can affect or create the future. Megatrends have different meanings for different companies, organizations and individuals, because we react, consciously or not, differently to trends such as globalization (vs. anti-globalization movements), individualization (vs. new communities) and the increasing pace of change (vs. the slow movement).
Futures researchers always work with three types of futures: the predictable, the possible, and the preferred. The two last - the possible and the preferred - are also worth considering when we use megatrends in our strategic work with the future.
Megatrends say something about the probable future, but there are other possible futures. Every megatrend can be set aside or can suddenly and fundamentally change direction. Wildcards - events that are unlikely, but that would have enormous consequences - can slow a megatrend's development or create counter-forces. For example, the events of September 11, 2001 temporarily stopped growth and slowed some aspects of globalization.
Certainties, uncertainties and paradoxes
Megatrends are the probable future - or express what we know with great confidence about the future. Megatrends are certainties. Nevertheless, they always contain elements of uncertainty - through the effects on and reactions of companies, organizations and individuals, or through wildcards. Moreover, they can contain elements of paradoxes/counter-forces, such as the anti-globalization movement, anti-consumer movement or the slow movement.
Megatrends can be used as a methodology when you or your company works strategically with the future. You can, for example, use them as a base in development and innovation processes, and use them in combination with other trends in a more specific area. You can also use them if you create scenarios or need an Early Warning System.
