10 megatrends toward 2020
#1 Ageing
The world's population is ageing. It is happening because we live longer, and because there will be relatively more elderly than youths the next decades. This is especially because the world's women have had fewer children the last 55 years. The trend toward falling fertility on a global basis is so clear that it will almost certainly continue the next decades, and that means the world's population will not increase.
The ageing megatrend applies to all regions of the world, and has great significance for society, economics, corporations, and individuals. Social dynamism may be reduced because older people are often less open to change than the young. Most OECD countries have the issue of an ageing population at the top of their political agendas, and health care, pension systems and care for the elderly have been prioritized in many countries in recent years. More elderly outside the labor market means reduced tax revenues and higher (public) expenses.
The elderly of the future are expected to get a great deal of attention because many of them are financially well off. Today's elderly are in better health and more affluent than the elderly of the past. As a result, age has taken on a different meaning, and many elderly have a completely different self-image than earlier generations. The elderly in the western world want an active retirement with travel, experiences or other forms of self-realization.
The greatest consequences of ageing will be felt on the labor market after 2010, when the number of people of working age will fall. The labor market will be a seller's market, and youth will be in great demand. This may prompt bottle-neck problems, upward pressure on salaries, greater international competition and, in the end, poorer competitiveness for OECD countries. The reaction can be more off-shoring and outsourcing and a different perception of immigration. In the immaterial and creative economy of the future, more of the especially well-educated elderly may remain active in business life longer, but that requires companies and organizations to start considering now new forms of employment to create the optimal conditions for this group.
#2 Globalization
Globalization is the fast growing global interconnectedness reflected in the expanded flows of people, capital, goods, services, information, technologies, and culture. Globalization is not a new phenomenon, but it will mean something different in the future.
Companies and money markets are the most global things today, and we see a growing international division of labor. We increasingly experience common production and consumption values. Globalization makes us more alike across the world, but it also makes us more aware of local differences. When we look at what is most globalized today - markets and companies - the trend is towards regionalization. However, in the near future we will far more clearly than today see and experience what makes us alike - more globally oriented - and what makes us more different or locally anchored.
The global development leads to increased liberalization and expanded trade in most countries and regions. However, it does not seem likely, that the world will be dominated by common political and ethical values in the near future. A probable future can therefore be "A World of Nations and Regions," with global free trade but only deeper integration at regional levels. Citizens and consumers also seem to be cross-culturally different in their behavior and their preferences for products. A growing number of multinational companies have therefore begun to adapt their products and marketing to the individual markets.
#3 Technological development
Our use of technology is what differentiates us from other animals. We are the only creatures who construct and develop tools that make life more pleasant for us. Since the start of the industrial age, technological development has accelerated, so changes come faster and in more areas. The most important technological development areas in the next decades are information technology, biotechnology, nano-technology and energy.
Information technology has created enormous changes in recent decades: personal computers, the Internet, mobile telephones, industrial robots, iPods, and much more. In 2020, computers will be about 200 times faster than today's computers, and will have memories 1000 times as large. Computers and robots will take on increasingly complex assignments, and the Internet will be a breeding ground for completely new, virtual industries.
In recent years, we have seen great progress in biotechnology with the mapping of the human genome, cloning of mammals, and genetic modification of plants and animals. Research in biotechnology opens the door to new, future treatments in the form of gene therapy and transplantation of cloned organs. Genetically modified plants and animals (GMO) may potentially relieve world hunger. However, at the same time, biotechnology opens a Pandora's box of ethical questions: Is it acceptable to manipulate life? Is GMO just another way for the West to exploit the Third World? Will biotechnology prompt unforeseen biological catastrophes?
Nanotechnology is a general term for technology with structures on a nanometer scale (one billionth of a meter). Researchers develop nanomaterials with many fantastic charac-teristics such as extreme strength, special electric properties and extremely low friction. Nanoelectronics may, in a few years, replace microelectronics. At little further into the future are nanomachines: microscopic robots that, for example, swim around in our veins removing cancer and plaque.
One of the great challenges of the 21st century will still be finding energy for both the new and the old industrial countries. Oil will run out eventually, so we must find alternatives. There is much research in sustainable energy from wind, the sun, and the earth's warmth and in alternative fuels such as hydrogen and biofuel. The following decades will also offer progress in atomic energy, both the traditional fission energy and the controversial fusion power that creates energy the same way the sun does.
#4 Prosperity
Prosperity is a megatrend because the majority of the population of OECD countries and large groups in formerly developing countries are now growing more prosperous. Between 2% and 4% growth is assumed in the western world in coming years, and in some regions - especially North America, Latin America, and Asia - the growth rate will likely reach 10%-15%. It is doubtful that Africa and the Middle East will enjoy such growth and increase in prosperity because fertility rates are expected to remain high in these regions, among other factors. Moreover, prognoses indicate the Russian middle class will grow from 50% to 85% in the next 10 years, the Chinese from 5% to 40% and the Brazilian from 25% to 50%.
Gross National Product (GNP) is usually used to measure and compare the wealth of nations. The US and EU are, measured by GNP, far richer than other parts of the world, but that can change in step with the high economic growth rates and increasing employment in many developing countries.
The economic growth will cause a change in the demand for new types of products, with a new business structure as a result. In short, most countries are going through a structural social and economic change in the transition from agricultural and/or industrial society to a knowledge society. When we grow richer, new needs arise and we consume more in the form of intangible products such as entertainment, experiences, services, savings and investment. More prosperity changes our consumption of traditional tangible products such as food, because affluent consumers focus on health, quality, trust, origin, animal welfare, etc.
More prosperity and more consumption will change the relationships between costs, prices and profit. The relationship that formerly existed between consumer prices and production costs, based on resource contributions such as labor and capital, is no longer present. Much of the value of the tangible products of the future is not in production costs but in the knowledge behind the product: product development, marketing, distribution, etc. That also means that there will be much greater pressure on companies and individuals to be change oriented, creative and innovative.
#5 Individualization
Individualization is the shift from more collectivist societal norms to more individualism. In the Middle Ages, a person was defined by his relationship to God. He was placed in a framework where God penetrated every aspect of society, thus making man's fate preordained. The Renaissance and the advent of modern industrialization freed man in this respect. Suddenly the son of a farmer did not necessarily have to become a farmer. Man's fate was now more a question of interest and skill rather then obligation and tradition.
Historically, individualization is closely related to cultural norms and change of social structure. The 20th century may be said to be the century of individualism in Western culture. A central aim for modern man is to distinguish himself from his fellows, and thereby obtaining a higher position in a social hierarchy based on shared norms and values. Today the question must be raised in Western society whether these norms and values exist or if they just relate to the scarce commodity rule of socially distinctive action, thus generating an oppositional tendency to focus on individualized value-based distinction. In any case, the individualistic approach has made branding one of the key figures in modern sales and marketing.
Individualization will be significant for the lives of the individual - and in private relations between people. But individualization will in the coming years also greatly influence companies. First, individualization can be read in the gradual dissolution of traditional segments. Even today, the segment models are in the process of having to give up because customers no longer can be divided into internally consistent groups. As customers, people are increasingly going to expect individual and unique products. Secondly, companies are going to feel the increasing employee turnover more. The labor force of the future can handle more changes than that of the present. Thirdly, individualization will be felt as an employee demand for individual attention.
#6 Commercialization
Commercialization is the meeting of increasingly more human needs on the private market through trade that can be both supply and demand driven. Commercialization is closely linked to other megatrends such as globalization, prosperity, individualization and digitalization. Digitalization has made it much easier to reach consumers globally, and the Internet promotes commercialization by making it both cheaper and faster for companies to market to the global market. Globalization has great influence on commercialization because of increased international trade, greater investment and more travel. Prosperity and individualization also accelerate commercialization because consumers have more money and at the same time demand individually tailored products and services.
Commercialization will probably increase in the future, and the consequences will range from even more prosperity to specialization in business and the labor market. Specialization means that companies deliver more differentiated products and services while employees work more with product development, innovation, marketing and sales. This will in turn speed up the transition to the creative knowledge economy.
Commercialization gives the individual more choices, increases competitive pressure on many companies and organizations, and thereby creates a growing market for new products. More competition forces businesses to further specialization and effectiveness. Some companies will concentrate on large-scale operations, centralization and standardization. Others will do the opposite, concentrating on decentralization, flexibility, niche production, immaterialization, marketing and customer service.
#7 Health and environment
Today, fitness has become wellness, and so has gained a more spiritual and personality-optimizing character. New spa baths, treatment resorts, and other offerings are constantly appearing on the market.
The health and environment megatrend will have even greater significance in the coming years. There will come more age related illnesses, more lifestyle illnesses such as obesity and stress, and more mental illness. Men's sperm quality has fallen greatly over the last 10 years, more children suffer from allergy, and smoking is banned in more and more places. There will be focus on clean drinking water - even in the countries that until now have not had problems drinking water from the tap. The World Bank calculates that the spread of avian influenza cold cost US$800 million a year and prompt a significant drop in GNP in the affected countries. The Asian Development Bank calculates, moreover, that a pandemic could create a period with low growth in which global trade would fall by 14%. The health megatrend is, therefore, of great significance for the world economy.
The individual household uses more and more money on environment and health. The modern person buys vitamins, practices yoga and eats healthfully. In step with the individualization trend, more are interested in the body, beauty care and wellness, and more are aware of the connection between health and environment.
For companies, it will also be more important to take into account employee health. Many already work to improve employee morale, loyalty and productivity through meal programs, fitness centers, etc. We will probably also see more countertrends to this in coming years.
#8 Acceleration
The industrial revolution was the starting signal for increased acceleration, which has only grown since then. Today, for example, there is more knowledge for the individual to consider, more to produce and consume, more to throw out, more to communicate, more to transport, and many more people to interact with. The pace of change is the number of changes in society per unit of time, and there are no absolute numbers for it. But that many people say there are more and more changes is sign enough of it.
Changes touch us on many levels, and we change job, partners, friends, interests, home, knowledge, news and ideas faster than before. Information is not just more accessible today - the entry of new products on the market goes faster and faster. A single example is that it took 13 years before 30 million video cassettes were on the market, but just eight years for the same number of CDs and only five years for 30 million DVDs. Modern people much make far more daily choices than ever before, and our curiosity and our aspirations for development, new knowledge and improvements will be forces that will increase the pace of change in the future. So will new technologies such as nanotechnology and biotechnology.
The pace of change already makes great demands on the ability of companies and organizations to reorganize. And that is not all: if you want to protect your competitive power, it is not enough to be change ready - you must be change-oriented so that you do not make do with subsequently and passively adjusting to the changes that happen in your world. According to a study by McKinsey, it is probable that a market leader will lose its position at the top in five years, twice as fast as 20 years ago. Speed and flexibility are other demands on companies and organizations in an accelerating development.
#9 Network organizing
To enter a network is a natural part of being human. Central to all networks is communication, because communication is the reason we have a society, a culture, an identity and an economy. Network organizing is a megatrend because network has become a central term that permeates our way of thinking. Cheaper transport, better infrastructures, the Internet, mobile telephony and increasing prosperity have revolutionized the opportunities for communication and network organizing. This megatrend is, in other words, closely connected to the development in several other megatrends, not least digitalization, globalization, and individualization, but also prosperity, immaterialization, and commercialization.
A network's value increases exponentially with the number of members who are in it. Changes in a network society do not happen linearly as they do in an industrial society. That means that many changes that took decades in the past now happen significantly faster. Network organizing greatly affects technological, societal, and economic development, and we have probably seen only the beginning. The rapid development potential in the network society means, on the one hand, that companies can expand incredibly fast, as happened with Microsoft, but, on the other hand, companies in all industries can risk outcompeting each other in a very short time. This applies even to Microsoft, which, even though 90% of computers use its programs, is losing share to the free operating system Linux.
Networks drive out hierarchies and create many new open and decentral social structures. This applies to private life, especially for the younger generation, to the labor market, and business life. Network organizes also promotes urbanization, because urban regions with good infrastructure, good development possibilities, and a rich research environment attract the creative class. Network organizing challenges our entire way of thinking and traditional institutions such as the nation-state, the church, culture and language because people enter other and new networks than before.
Google is an example of a company where the network principle has shown itself to be a good business ideology. The Google search engine's strength is, in fact, that it lists search results according to how centrally a web site is in the network - that is, according to how interesting users believe it is.
#10 Urbanization
Large-scale migration from region to region and countryside to urban areas continues in both Asia and the Middle East. Rapid urbanization poses a fundamental challenge the development of adequate infrastructure and livable housing, and the maintenance of healthy environments. Other than that it also put stress on traditional ways of living, family structure and cultural values - creating a growing potential for social and political unrest.
Nevertheless, there are also reasons for optimism. The historic association between economic development and urbanization is well established. Cities are crucial environments and institutional assemblages for economic growth. Current research indicates that even in less developed countries cities experience lower rates of natural population increase than rural areas, average household income is higher, and educational levels are well above those in rural areas. Thus, cities can also be seen as places of opportunity in which the major need is effective management and provision of services, creation of economic opportunity, and the provision of safe and healthy environments.
#1 Ageing
The world's population is ageing. It is happening because we live longer, and because there will be relatively more elderly than youths the next decades. This is especially because the world's women have had fewer children the last 55 years. The trend toward falling fertility on a global basis is so clear that it will almost certainly continue the next decades, and that means the world's population will not increase.
The ageing megatrend applies to all regions of the world, and has great significance for society, economics, corporations, and individuals. Social dynamism may be reduced because older people are often less open to change than the young. Most OECD countries have the issue of an ageing population at the top of their political agendas, and health care, pension systems and care for the elderly have been prioritized in many countries in recent years. More elderly outside the labor market means reduced tax revenues and higher (public) expenses.
The elderly of the future are expected to get a great deal of attention because many of them are financially well off. Today's elderly are in better health and more affluent than the elderly of the past. As a result, age has taken on a different meaning, and many elderly have a completely different self-image than earlier generations. The elderly in the western world want an active retirement with travel, experiences or other forms of self-realization.
The greatest consequences of ageing will be felt on the labor market after 2010, when the number of people of working age will fall. The labor market will be a seller's market, and youth will be in great demand. This may prompt bottle-neck problems, upward pressure on salaries, greater international competition and, in the end, poorer competitiveness for OECD countries. The reaction can be more off-shoring and outsourcing and a different perception of immigration. In the immaterial and creative economy of the future, more of the especially well-educated elderly may remain active in business life longer, but that requires companies and organizations to start considering now new forms of employment to create the optimal conditions for this group.
#2 Globalization
Globalization is the fast growing global interconnectedness reflected in the expanded flows of people, capital, goods, services, information, technologies, and culture. Globalization is not a new phenomenon, but it will mean something different in the future.
Companies and money markets are the most global things today, and we see a growing international division of labor. We increasingly experience common production and consumption values. Globalization makes us more alike across the world, but it also makes us more aware of local differences. When we look at what is most globalized today - markets and companies - the trend is towards regionalization. However, in the near future we will far more clearly than today see and experience what makes us alike - more globally oriented - and what makes us more different or locally anchored.
The global development leads to increased liberalization and expanded trade in most countries and regions. However, it does not seem likely, that the world will be dominated by common political and ethical values in the near future. A probable future can therefore be "A World of Nations and Regions," with global free trade but only deeper integration at regional levels. Citizens and consumers also seem to be cross-culturally different in their behavior and their preferences for products. A growing number of multinational companies have therefore begun to adapt their products and marketing to the individual markets.
#3 Technological development
Our use of technology is what differentiates us from other animals. We are the only creatures who construct and develop tools that make life more pleasant for us. Since the start of the industrial age, technological development has accelerated, so changes come faster and in more areas. The most important technological development areas in the next decades are information technology, biotechnology, nano-technology and energy.
Information technology has created enormous changes in recent decades: personal computers, the Internet, mobile telephones, industrial robots, iPods, and much more. In 2020, computers will be about 200 times faster than today's computers, and will have memories 1000 times as large. Computers and robots will take on increasingly complex assignments, and the Internet will be a breeding ground for completely new, virtual industries.
In recent years, we have seen great progress in biotechnology with the mapping of the human genome, cloning of mammals, and genetic modification of plants and animals. Research in biotechnology opens the door to new, future treatments in the form of gene therapy and transplantation of cloned organs. Genetically modified plants and animals (GMO) may potentially relieve world hunger. However, at the same time, biotechnology opens a Pandora's box of ethical questions: Is it acceptable to manipulate life? Is GMO just another way for the West to exploit the Third World? Will biotechnology prompt unforeseen biological catastrophes?
Nanotechnology is a general term for technology with structures on a nanometer scale (one billionth of a meter). Researchers develop nanomaterials with many fantastic charac-teristics such as extreme strength, special electric properties and extremely low friction. Nanoelectronics may, in a few years, replace microelectronics. At little further into the future are nanomachines: microscopic robots that, for example, swim around in our veins removing cancer and plaque.
One of the great challenges of the 21st century will still be finding energy for both the new and the old industrial countries. Oil will run out eventually, so we must find alternatives. There is much research in sustainable energy from wind, the sun, and the earth's warmth and in alternative fuels such as hydrogen and biofuel. The following decades will also offer progress in atomic energy, both the traditional fission energy and the controversial fusion power that creates energy the same way the sun does.
#4 Prosperity
Prosperity is a megatrend because the majority of the population of OECD countries and large groups in formerly developing countries are now growing more prosperous. Between 2% and 4% growth is assumed in the western world in coming years, and in some regions - especially North America, Latin America, and Asia - the growth rate will likely reach 10%-15%. It is doubtful that Africa and the Middle East will enjoy such growth and increase in prosperity because fertility rates are expected to remain high in these regions, among other factors. Moreover, prognoses indicate the Russian middle class will grow from 50% to 85% in the next 10 years, the Chinese from 5% to 40% and the Brazilian from 25% to 50%.
Gross National Product (GNP) is usually used to measure and compare the wealth of nations. The US and EU are, measured by GNP, far richer than other parts of the world, but that can change in step with the high economic growth rates and increasing employment in many developing countries.
The economic growth will cause a change in the demand for new types of products, with a new business structure as a result. In short, most countries are going through a structural social and economic change in the transition from agricultural and/or industrial society to a knowledge society. When we grow richer, new needs arise and we consume more in the form of intangible products such as entertainment, experiences, services, savings and investment. More prosperity changes our consumption of traditional tangible products such as food, because affluent consumers focus on health, quality, trust, origin, animal welfare, etc.
More prosperity and more consumption will change the relationships between costs, prices and profit. The relationship that formerly existed between consumer prices and production costs, based on resource contributions such as labor and capital, is no longer present. Much of the value of the tangible products of the future is not in production costs but in the knowledge behind the product: product development, marketing, distribution, etc. That also means that there will be much greater pressure on companies and individuals to be change oriented, creative and innovative.
#5 Individualization
Individualization is the shift from more collectivist societal norms to more individualism. In the Middle Ages, a person was defined by his relationship to God. He was placed in a framework where God penetrated every aspect of society, thus making man's fate preordained. The Renaissance and the advent of modern industrialization freed man in this respect. Suddenly the son of a farmer did not necessarily have to become a farmer. Man's fate was now more a question of interest and skill rather then obligation and tradition.
Historically, individualization is closely related to cultural norms and change of social structure. The 20th century may be said to be the century of individualism in Western culture. A central aim for modern man is to distinguish himself from his fellows, and thereby obtaining a higher position in a social hierarchy based on shared norms and values. Today the question must be raised in Western society whether these norms and values exist or if they just relate to the scarce commodity rule of socially distinctive action, thus generating an oppositional tendency to focus on individualized value-based distinction. In any case, the individualistic approach has made branding one of the key figures in modern sales and marketing.
Individualization will be significant for the lives of the individual - and in private relations between people. But individualization will in the coming years also greatly influence companies. First, individualization can be read in the gradual dissolution of traditional segments. Even today, the segment models are in the process of having to give up because customers no longer can be divided into internally consistent groups. As customers, people are increasingly going to expect individual and unique products. Secondly, companies are going to feel the increasing employee turnover more. The labor force of the future can handle more changes than that of the present. Thirdly, individualization will be felt as an employee demand for individual attention.
#6 Commercialization
Commercialization is the meeting of increasingly more human needs on the private market through trade that can be both supply and demand driven. Commercialization is closely linked to other megatrends such as globalization, prosperity, individualization and digitalization. Digitalization has made it much easier to reach consumers globally, and the Internet promotes commercialization by making it both cheaper and faster for companies to market to the global market. Globalization has great influence on commercialization because of increased international trade, greater investment and more travel. Prosperity and individualization also accelerate commercialization because consumers have more money and at the same time demand individually tailored products and services.
Commercialization will probably increase in the future, and the consequences will range from even more prosperity to specialization in business and the labor market. Specialization means that companies deliver more differentiated products and services while employees work more with product development, innovation, marketing and sales. This will in turn speed up the transition to the creative knowledge economy.
Commercialization gives the individual more choices, increases competitive pressure on many companies and organizations, and thereby creates a growing market for new products. More competition forces businesses to further specialization and effectiveness. Some companies will concentrate on large-scale operations, centralization and standardization. Others will do the opposite, concentrating on decentralization, flexibility, niche production, immaterialization, marketing and customer service.
#7 Health and environment
Today, fitness has become wellness, and so has gained a more spiritual and personality-optimizing character. New spa baths, treatment resorts, and other offerings are constantly appearing on the market.
The health and environment megatrend will have even greater significance in the coming years. There will come more age related illnesses, more lifestyle illnesses such as obesity and stress, and more mental illness. Men's sperm quality has fallen greatly over the last 10 years, more children suffer from allergy, and smoking is banned in more and more places. There will be focus on clean drinking water - even in the countries that until now have not had problems drinking water from the tap. The World Bank calculates that the spread of avian influenza cold cost US$800 million a year and prompt a significant drop in GNP in the affected countries. The Asian Development Bank calculates, moreover, that a pandemic could create a period with low growth in which global trade would fall by 14%. The health megatrend is, therefore, of great significance for the world economy.
The individual household uses more and more money on environment and health. The modern person buys vitamins, practices yoga and eats healthfully. In step with the individualization trend, more are interested in the body, beauty care and wellness, and more are aware of the connection between health and environment.
For companies, it will also be more important to take into account employee health. Many already work to improve employee morale, loyalty and productivity through meal programs, fitness centers, etc. We will probably also see more countertrends to this in coming years.
#8 Acceleration
The industrial revolution was the starting signal for increased acceleration, which has only grown since then. Today, for example, there is more knowledge for the individual to consider, more to produce and consume, more to throw out, more to communicate, more to transport, and many more people to interact with. The pace of change is the number of changes in society per unit of time, and there are no absolute numbers for it. But that many people say there are more and more changes is sign enough of it.
Changes touch us on many levels, and we change job, partners, friends, interests, home, knowledge, news and ideas faster than before. Information is not just more accessible today - the entry of new products on the market goes faster and faster. A single example is that it took 13 years before 30 million video cassettes were on the market, but just eight years for the same number of CDs and only five years for 30 million DVDs. Modern people much make far more daily choices than ever before, and our curiosity and our aspirations for development, new knowledge and improvements will be forces that will increase the pace of change in the future. So will new technologies such as nanotechnology and biotechnology.
The pace of change already makes great demands on the ability of companies and organizations to reorganize. And that is not all: if you want to protect your competitive power, it is not enough to be change ready - you must be change-oriented so that you do not make do with subsequently and passively adjusting to the changes that happen in your world. According to a study by McKinsey, it is probable that a market leader will lose its position at the top in five years, twice as fast as 20 years ago. Speed and flexibility are other demands on companies and organizations in an accelerating development.
#9 Network organizing
To enter a network is a natural part of being human. Central to all networks is communication, because communication is the reason we have a society, a culture, an identity and an economy. Network organizing is a megatrend because network has become a central term that permeates our way of thinking. Cheaper transport, better infrastructures, the Internet, mobile telephony and increasing prosperity have revolutionized the opportunities for communication and network organizing. This megatrend is, in other words, closely connected to the development in several other megatrends, not least digitalization, globalization, and individualization, but also prosperity, immaterialization, and commercialization.
A network's value increases exponentially with the number of members who are in it. Changes in a network society do not happen linearly as they do in an industrial society. That means that many changes that took decades in the past now happen significantly faster. Network organizing greatly affects technological, societal, and economic development, and we have probably seen only the beginning. The rapid development potential in the network society means, on the one hand, that companies can expand incredibly fast, as happened with Microsoft, but, on the other hand, companies in all industries can risk outcompeting each other in a very short time. This applies even to Microsoft, which, even though 90% of computers use its programs, is losing share to the free operating system Linux.
Networks drive out hierarchies and create many new open and decentral social structures. This applies to private life, especially for the younger generation, to the labor market, and business life. Network organizes also promotes urbanization, because urban regions with good infrastructure, good development possibilities, and a rich research environment attract the creative class. Network organizing challenges our entire way of thinking and traditional institutions such as the nation-state, the church, culture and language because people enter other and new networks than before.
Google is an example of a company where the network principle has shown itself to be a good business ideology. The Google search engine's strength is, in fact, that it lists search results according to how centrally a web site is in the network - that is, according to how interesting users believe it is.
#10 Urbanization
Large-scale migration from region to region and countryside to urban areas continues in both Asia and the Middle East. Rapid urbanization poses a fundamental challenge the development of adequate infrastructure and livable housing, and the maintenance of healthy environments. Other than that it also put stress on traditional ways of living, family structure and cultural values - creating a growing potential for social and political unrest.
Nevertheless, there are also reasons for optimism. The historic association between economic development and urbanization is well established. Cities are crucial environments and institutional assemblages for economic growth. Current research indicates that even in less developed countries cities experience lower rates of natural population increase than rural areas, average household income is higher, and educational levels are well above those in rural areas. Thus, cities can also be seen as places of opportunity in which the major need is effective management and provision of services, creation of economic opportunity, and the provision of safe and healthy environments.
Reference Books and Document
1) Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Live – Author John Naisbitt Published 1988
2) Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping the government by KPMG
3) Megatrends: Asia Pacific Market Insights By Manoj Menon, Frost and Sullivan 2011
4) Marketing Megatrends by Jagdish N Sheth Ph.D Professor, University of Illinois, The Journal of Consumer Marketing
Websites:
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/our-services-page.pag?sid=224579556
http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/24911.asp#multiview
http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/p16790/Think-Cranfield/2011/October-2011/Global-Megatrends-What-next-for-business
http://www.insightbureau.com/insight_articles/FTDO.No44.Pacek.Nov09.pdf
http://www.kpmg.com/dutchcaribbean/en/Documents/Publications/FutureState2030WebAccessibleFINAL.pdf
http://www.marketingprofs.com/articles/2013/11036/arianna-huffington-marketing-megatrends-vocus-conference
http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1469
1) Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Live – Author John Naisbitt Published 1988
2) Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping the government by KPMG
3) Megatrends: Asia Pacific Market Insights By Manoj Menon, Frost and Sullivan 2011
4) Marketing Megatrends by Jagdish N Sheth Ph.D Professor, University of Illinois, The Journal of Consumer Marketing
Websites:
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/our-services-page.pag?sid=224579556
http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/24911.asp#multiview
http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/p16790/Think-Cranfield/2011/October-2011/Global-Megatrends-What-next-for-business
http://www.insightbureau.com/insight_articles/FTDO.No44.Pacek.Nov09.pdf
http://www.kpmg.com/dutchcaribbean/en/Documents/Publications/FutureState2030WebAccessibleFINAL.pdf
http://www.marketingprofs.com/articles/2013/11036/arianna-huffington-marketing-megatrends-vocus-conference
http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1469
